000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230945
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 3N78W 7N111W 7N125W 10N133W 8N140W WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYER LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 
36N125W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM LOW THROUGH 31N125W TO 27N131W.
AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 27N139W. A SURFACE HIGH IS 
CENTERED OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST NEAR 27N117W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
IS LOCATED SE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET 
REACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH AT 20N140W ACROSS 
BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. MAX WINDS IN THE JET ARE NEAR 
100 KT BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EVIDENT W 
OF 115W BETWEEN THE SFC HIGH AND A WEAK TROUGH IN THE ITCZ NEAR 131W.

LOOKING AHEAD...STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC 
INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
THE LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SLIDES SOUTHWARD...DRAGGING A WEAK 
COLD SOUTH OF 30N FRI EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT...PRIMARILY N OF 25N W OF 130W FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. 
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SO-CAL COAST WILL ALSO PROVIDE A MAJOR BREAK 
IN THE TRADE WIND REGIME THIS WEEKEND NORMALLY FOUND WEST OF 115W.

MODERATE GAP WINDS WILL PERSIST IN FAVORED LOCATIONS DUE TO HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO. 
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS.

$$
MUNDELL