000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230412
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JAN 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N78W 5N86W 7N115W 8N132W 7N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...A SURFACE LOW 1014 MB...IS CENTERED UNDER AN 
ASSOCIATED UPPER CYCLONE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 
36N125W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 30N126W THEN 
TO 27N131W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE UPPER CYCLONE TO 
ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 27N139W...PINWHEELING EWD AROUND THE 
LARGER UPPER LOW OFF CALIFORNIA. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE 
LOW 1019 MB NEAR 30N142W WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 
HOURS AS THE PARENT UPPER CYCLONE IS ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER 
TROUGH. FURTHER E...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 1021 MB IS CENTERED 
OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST NEAR 27N117W. A RECENT SHIP 
OBSERVATION INDICATES THAT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST S OF 
THE HIGH PRES. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT THE BASE OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH IS SUSTAINING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 132W. 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EVIDENT W OF 115W...BETWEEN THE 
HIGH PRES AND A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 131W. LOOKING 
AHEAD THROUGH THU...SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL 
PACIFIC SE BEHIND THE FILLING 1019 MB SURFACE LOW. TRADES WILL 
INCREASE BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH TO 
THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION...INCREASING NLY FLOW TO THE E OF THE LOW 
OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST RESULTS IN LARGE NLY SWELL 
PUSHING INTO THE AREA GENERALLY N OF 20N W OF 125W.

E OF 110W...STRONG GAP WINDS PERSIST DUE TO HIGH SURFACE 
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HI RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA 
FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED 25 TO 30 KT FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...AND 20 TO 25 KT E FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. WHILE THE PAPAGAYO FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 48 
HOURS...THE TEHUANTEPEC WINDS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO WEAKENING 
HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE...SCATTEROMETER DATA AS WELL 
AS SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW MODERATE NLY FLOW THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PANAMA TOWARD ECUADOR. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN