000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222213
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N77W 3N80W 8N131W 7N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE 
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW NEAR 30N141W TO 
20N143W. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE 
IS CENTERED NEAR 33N126W. ANOTHER DEEPER LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE UPPER CYCLONE OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WEAK SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE IS SHIFT EWD OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST. SCATTEROMETER 
DATA SHOW TRADE WIND FLOW TO BE FAIRLY WEAK S OF THE HIGH PRES. 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EVIDENT W OF 115W...BETWEEN THE 
HIGH PRES AND A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 131W. LOOKING 
AHEAD THROUGH THU...THE UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 30N141W IS ABSORBED 
BY THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE 
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW FILLS ACCORDINGLY...AS A WEDGE OF HIGH 
PRES BUILDS SE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. NLY FLOW TO THE E OF 
THE LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST INCREASES...RESULTING 
IN LARGE NLY SWELL PUSHING INTO THE AREA GENERALLY N OF 20N W OF 
125W.

E OF 110W...STRONG GAP WINDS PERSIST DUE TO HIGH SURFACE 
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HI RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA 
FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED 25 TO 30 KT FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...AND 20 TO 25 KT E FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. WHILE THE PAPAGAYO FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 48 
HOURS...THE TEHUANTEPEC WINDS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO WEAKENING 
HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE...SCATTEROMETER DATA AS WELL 
AS SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH NLY FLOW 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA TOWARD ECUADOR. THIS FLOW WILL 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGE 
WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA.  
$$
CHRISTENSEN