000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221553
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
15300 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N77W 6N115W 8N127W 7N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE TROUGH SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS 
DEFINED BY A COUPLE OF UPPER LOWS EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH...ONE 
CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NW OF SAN FRANCISCO AN OTHER JUST W OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N141W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET EMERGES FROM 
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH WINDS 95-105 KT NEAR 17N140W TO 28N125W 
WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 115-130 KT THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA INTO SW ARIZONA. BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 200 NM S 
OF THE JET AXIS. THE OTHER PRIMARY FEATURE IS A N-S RIDGE AXIS ALONG 
100W. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE...BOTH THE TROUGH 
AND RIDGE ARE MOVING SLOWLY E.

ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS S INTO THE AREA FROM HONDURAS 17N83W TO 
THE EQUATOR AT 84W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS VERY DRY AIR DOMINATING THE 
REGION S OF 22N E OF 105W AND IS SUPPRESSING ITCZ CONVECTION.
 
SFC PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT N 20-30 KT WINDS IN AND JUST 
DOWNSTREAM OF GULF OF PAPAGAYO THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS THEN DIMINISHING 
TO 20 KT IN 24-48 HOURS.

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA NEAR 32N122W TO 
28N130W. HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

$$
DGS/TK