000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211500
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N83W 4N105W 6N120W 7N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
SRN TIP OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 22N140W.
A VERY BROAD RIDGE WITH ZONAL WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW N OF 15N IS E 
OF THE TROUGH WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC S OF 15N.
A 105-125 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM 24N33W TO 29N122W WITH WIND 
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 120-140 KT...THE JET CONTINUES E ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS. DENSE MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED EWD S OF THE JET AXIS. A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE TROPICS FROM HONDURAS S TO THE EQUATOR 
AT 82W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG
THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE ITCZ.

PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO BE STRONG 
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...HOWEVER THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME 
THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE.

$$
DGS