000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210946
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N83W  4N106W  8N124W  9N137W  9N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 100W...
SRN TIP OF MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM 32N135W TO 
24N140W ENTERING E PAC BASIN WITH STRONG 145 KT JTST FLATTENING 
CREST OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGE.  WHILE FLOW N OF 20N BECOMES ZONAL IT 
ADVECTS SWATH OF TRPCL MOISTURE ALONG 20N INTO SRN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE.  
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW S OF 20N DRIES AIR MASS WITH MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER RIDGE COVER TO COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH E OF 90W COMPLETES UPPER LEVEL SCENARIO. 
VERY DRY AIRMASS MAINTAINS ITCZ WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

AT THE SURFACE...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING CONTINUES AS N WINDS 45 KT WERE 
OBSERVED BY QSCAT PASS.  WIND EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW GALE WITHIN 
24 HOURS AS RIDGE OVER GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES DRIFTING E.  
STRONG RIDGE OVER CARIBBEAN SPILLING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WHICH OUGHT TO LAST BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.  

HIGH PRES CENTER WELL NW OF E PAC MAINTAINS BRISK NE TRADES FROM 
12N-20N W OF 120W THROUGH PERIOD.  

$$
WALLY BARNES