000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 6N93W 7N104W 6N117W 7N140W WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SE FROM 32N138W TO 23N129W. 
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE HAS AXIS FROM 32N131W TO 23N125W. ZONAL WLY FLOW S 
OF THESE FEATURES...WITH A 90 KT SUBTROPICAL JET ALONG 14N W OF 120W.
WINDS DECREASE TO 70-85 KT AROUND 107W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED EWD W OF 105W. A SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE 
BASE OF TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EXTENDS ACROSS NW MEXICO
AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA 
EXTENDS N ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
DRY AIR ALOFT E OF 105W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE S OF 10N W OF 105W HAS 
SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE ITCZ.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE 
DIURNALLY AROUND 20 KT... AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GALE FORCE 
WINDS EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN ABOUT 30-36 HOURS LATE 
SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...AND 
PERSIST THROUGH SUN.

$$
MUNDELL