000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182135
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N81W 5N90W 8N127W 7N140W WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SE FROM 32N138W TO 23N129W. 
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE HAS AXIS FROM 32N131W TO 23N125W. ZONAL WLY FLOW S 
OF THESE FEATURES...WITH A 100 KT SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM ALONG 14N W 
OF 120W. WINDS DECREASE TO 75-95 KT AROUND 107W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN 
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS BEING ADVECTED EWD W OF 105W. A SHARP MID- 
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES EXTENDS ACROSS NW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA EXTENDS N ACROSS PANAMA INTO 
THE W CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT E OF 105W. 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE S OF 10N W OF 105W HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE ITCZ. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ S OF 10N ALONG 129W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE DIURNALLY AROUND 20 KT... 
AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC IN ABOUT 30-36 HOURS LATE SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRES 
BUILDS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...AND PERSIST THROUGH SUN.

$$
MUNDELL