000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170341
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JAN 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 6N100W 10N114W 6N122W 6N140W WITH 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS SRN BAJA 
TO NEAR 22N123W. W OF THIS TROUGH THERE IS EXTENSIVE MODERATE TO 
STRONG NLY FLOW. BROAD SWLY FLOW S OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE 
GULF OF MEXICO. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS AMPLIFIED ALONG 133W. 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FROM THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC IS 
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE E TO ABOUT 120W WHERE IT ERODES IN AN AREA OF 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO 
CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS EVEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS 
SWD. THE TROUGH THEN FLATTENS SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE BROAD 
SCALE BECOMES WLY OVER THE REGION.

STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEHIND A 
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REACH NW MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. SANTA ANA WINDS 
WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO...WITH WINDS 
REACHING 25-30 KT OVER NRN SECTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITHIN  
24 HRS WITH THE INITIAL SURGE.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 32N131W THROUGH 26N125W 
TO 23N115W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N AND W OF 110W. A WEAK 
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 113W IS BECOMING DIFFUSE WITH FEW SHOWERS. 

EXPECT GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 24-36 HRS AS 
WEAK LOW PRES SSW OF COSTA RICA COMBINES WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO ALLOW FOR THE 
INCREASE SURGE OF THESE WINDS TO BEGIN. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GETS 
GOING IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...WITH GALES LIKELY SAT NIGHT AND SUN. 

$$
MUNDELL