000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161614
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JAN 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1600 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 6N90W 6N100W 9N110W 8N122W 
6N134W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 81W.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS SW
THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO TO SRN BAJA AND SW TO NEAR 22N123W. THIS
TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD WITH TIME...AND IS FOLLOWED BY 
A RATHER VAST AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG NLY FLOW. BROAD MODERATE
TO STRONG SWLY FLOW IS PRESENT TO THE S OF THE TROUGH...AND IS
ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS
NE TO ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
TO THE W OF THE TROUGH...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS AMPLIFIED
16N133W THROUGH 23N133W TO 31N129W...WITH NW FLOW BETWEEN IT THE
TROUGH. AMPLE MID  TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED IS BEING 
CHANNELED FROM THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC ENE OVER THE RIDGE
AND E TO ABOUT 120W WHERE IT ERODES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE LOCATED BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO 
CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS 
SWD AROUND THE WRN AND SRN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH
THEN FLATTENS SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE BROAD SCALE BECOMES
WLY OVER THE REGION AND SW UNITED STATES. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE FAR ERN PART OF
THE PACIFIC IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT N OF 21N E OF 120W. A 60 NM WIDE LINE OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 12N104W TO 15N101W...AND IS DUE 
TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MODERATE TO STRONG SW 
FLOW.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE 
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REACH NW 
MEXICO BY TONIGHT. SANTA ANA WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY 
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO...AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH UP TO 30 KT OVER NRN SECTION OF THE GULF OF WITHIN 
ABOUT 24 HRS WITH THE INITIAL SURGE.

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 32N131W 
SOUTHEASTWARD TO 26N125W TO 23N114.5W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA 
N OF 20N AND W OF 110W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING W IS ALONG 
11N120W 4N120W ...AND IS PRODUCING BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL 
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS. 

GAP WINDS...EXPECT GULF OF PAPAGAYO NE 20 KT WINDS TO BEGIN IN 
ABOUT 18 HRS AS WEAK LOW PRES SSW OF COSTA RICA COMBINES WITH 
HIGH PRES OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT COAST OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA TO ALLOW FOR THE INCREASE SURGE OF THESE WINDS TO BEGIN.

$$
AGUIRRE