000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152135
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 15 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N77W 4N84W 7N108W 11N116W 5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS E OF 79W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 133W WITH 90 KT JUST ROUNDING 
ITS CREST ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO AN OTHERWISE DRY REGION. MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
WHICH EXTENDS FROM 32N104W TO 20N123W. UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG 116W 
EXTENDS S OF 14N. SUBTROPICAL JET ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH ADVECTING 
TROPICAL CONVECTION DEBRIS FROM SURFACE TROUGH NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND 
SRN MEXICO INTO GULF OF MEXICO. WITH LOW PRES CENTER DEVELOPING IN 
BAY OF CAMPECHE...BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WOULD BE ONLY MISSING 
INGREDIENT FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT...ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY 
TO OCCUR...AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALMOST ZONAL. DRY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
ALOFT E OF 100W CURTAILING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT.

WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH IN FAR NW CORNER OF BASIN WITH DIMINISHING 
SFC WINDS NEXT 24 HRS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 118W IS MAIN FEATURE
PRODUCING ONLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN E PAC SUPPORTED BY UPPER 
LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW PRODUCED BY CYCLONIC VORTEX ALOFT. GAP WIND 
EVENTS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20 KT WITHIN 6-12 HRS. GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA NW WINDS WEAKEN WITHIN NEXT 6-12 12 HRS BUT RETURN WITH A 
VENGEANCE ABOUT 24 HRS LATER AS HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF AREA REBUILDS.

$$
MUNDELL