000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151626
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 15 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N77W  2N95W  10N114W  10N122W  6N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS E OF 79W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENTERS E PAC ALONG 133W WITH 90 KT 
JTST ROUNDING ITS CREST ADVECTING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO AN 
OTHERWISE DRY REGION.  MODERATE TOP STRONG SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 
RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM 
32N105W TO 19N122W THEN TO CLOSED CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 11N115W.
WEAK JET CORE 70 KT ROUNDING BASE OF VORTEX ADVECTS SWATH OF 
TRPCL CONVECTION DEBRIS FROM SURFACE TROUGH NE ACROSS CENTRAL 
AND SRN MEXICO INTO GULF OF MEXICO.  WITH LOW PRES CENTER 
DEVELOPING IN BAY OF CAMPECHE...BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT  
WOULD BE ONLY MISSING INGREDIENT FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER 
EVENT...NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ALMOST ZONAL. 
 
VERY DRY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT E OF 100W CURTAILS ANY DEEP 
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT MINOR CELLS E OF 79W CLOSE TO 
COAST OF COLOMBIA.

AT THE SURFACE...
WEAKENED FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS CLOSE TO NW CORNER OF BASIN WITH 
DIMINISHING SE WINDS THROUGH NEXT 24 HRS.  WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 
ALONG 118W IS MAIN FEATURE PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
IN E PAC SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW PRODUCED BY 
CYCLONIC VORTEX ALOFT.  BOTH GAP WIND EVENTS...GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
AND TEHUANTEPEC SCHEDULE TO BECOME BELOW 20 KT WITHIN 12 HRS.  

GULF OF CALIFORNIA NW WIND SPURT DIES WITHIN NEXT 12 HRS BUT 
RETURNS WITH A VENGEANCE 24 HRS LATER AS HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF 
AREA REBUILDS.

$$
WALLY BARNES