000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150408
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JAN 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...8N82W 4N92W 11N123W 5N130W  
5N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 103W AND 
109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 115W 
AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 105W...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NRN BAJA TO 24N120W TO AN 
QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 8N120W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIVERGENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE 
MODEST CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AS NOTED ABOVE. 
REINFORCING ENERGY INTO THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR BAJA WILL ALLOW 
THE TROPICAL UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH TO FINALLY OPEN UP AND LIFT 
OUT BY LATE TUE. MEANWHILE STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR 
32N147W. THE UPPER FEATURES STACKS WITH STATIONARY 1000 MB 
SURFACE LOW. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING E OF 140W THIS 
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STALL AS UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS AND LIFTS 
OUT. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO 
AS FAR SOUTH AS 20N. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA 
SHOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH 
PRES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...N OF THE 
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 120W...AND JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING 
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. LOOKING AHEAD...THE REINFORCING ENERGY 
PLUNGING SWD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL INDUCE THE RIDGE OVER 
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO RETROGRADE WEST SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDWEEK. 
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
AND AHEAD OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADE FLOW WILL PERSIST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
HIGH PRES...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS AS ITS UPPER 
SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. MEANWHILE WAVEWATCH MODEL SHOWS A ROUND OF 
MODERATE NW SWELL WITH PERIODS TO 18 SECONDS MOVING ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST STARTING WED...REACHING MANZANILLO MEXICO BY EARLY 
FRIDAY.

E OF 105W...SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED 30 KT FLOW THROUGH GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AT 01Z. THIS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS AND SHIFTS W...AHEAD OF A 
VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SW U.S. IN FACT...THIS WILL 
INDUCE LOW PRES TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH 
TO STRONG ELY FLOW THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH 
TUE AS CARIBBEAN TRADES DIMINISH. FINALLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS TROUGH 
OVER MEXICO WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 
14N BETWEEN 115W AND 117W IS THE RESULT OF WEAK LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

CHRISTENSEN