000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142211
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...4N77W  7N110W  10N120W  5N130W  
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM W OF 
STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH FROM 11N TO 16N ALONG 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 105W...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NRN BAJA TO 24N120W TO AN 
QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 8N120W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIVERGENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE 
MODEST CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AS NOTED ABOVE. 
REINFORCING ENERGY INTO THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR BAJA WILL ALLOW 
THE TROPICAL UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH TO FINALLY OPEN UP AND LIFT 
OUT BY LATE TUE. MEANWHILE STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR 
32N147W. THE UPPER FEATURES STACKS WITH STATIONARY 1000 MB 
SURFACE LOW. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING E OF 140W THIS 
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STALL AS UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS AND LIFTS 
OUT. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO 
AS FAR SOUTH AS 20N. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA 
SHOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH 
PRES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...N OF THE 
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 120W...AND JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING 
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. LOOKING AHEAD...THE REINFORCING ENERGY 
PLUNGING SWD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL INDUCE THE RIDGE OVER 
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO RETROGRADE WEST SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDWEEK. 
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
AND AHEAD OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADE FLOW WILL PERSIST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
HIGH PRES...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS AS ITS UPPER 
SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. MEANWHILE WAVEWATCH MODEL SHOWS A ROUND OF 
MODERATE NW SWELL WITH PERIODS TO 18 SECONDS MOVING ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST STARTING WED...REACHING MANZANILLO MEXICO BY EARLY 
FRIDAY.

E OF 105W...ASCAT DATA SHOW STRONG NLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG ELY 
WINDS COMING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE EVENTS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF 
MEXICO SHIFTS E TO WESTERN ATLC AHEAD OF TROUGH DIGGING INTO SW 
U.S.

CHRISTENSEN