000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141613
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...3N78W 6N85W 4N90W 10N118W  
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 115W 
AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N11W TO STATIONARY DEEP 
LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COMPLEX AT 8N125W.  UPPER LEVEL 
DIVERGENT FLOW ON E SIDE ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
ALONG WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 120W FROM 6N-14N.  
JTST 80 KT ROUNDING BASE OF CYCLONE ADVECTS TROPICAL MOISTURE 
DEBRIS FROM ITCZ NE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND SRN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA.

VERY DRY AIR MASS TRAPPED BETWEEN TROUGH AND NARROW UPSTREAM 
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N130W TO 14N140W.  
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS 120 KT JTST ROUNDING RIDGE 
CREST CONVERGE INTO 40 KT AT TROUGH BASE.  

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER PUSH FROM UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH NOW ALONG 83W. RIDGE SHOULD REBUILD ONCE TROUGH MOVES E.
AREA UNDER RIDGE REMAINS VERY DRY S OF 10N E OF 110W.

AT THE SURFACE...
STRONG S-SE WIND AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING NW CORNER 
OF BASIN SHOULD DIMINISH AS FRONT SUPPORT SHIFT NE AND FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY BECOMES DIFFUSE IN 48 HRS.  SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS 
ALONG 120W FROM 6N-14N SQUEEZES GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRES CENTER 
1027 MB AT AT 31N127W INCREASING NE WINDS ALONG ITS AXIS.  HIGH 
PRES POSITION FUNNELS NW WINDS INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA REACH 
20-25 KT AND INCREASE SEAS TO 8 FT BUT DIMINISH WITHIN 30 HRS.

NW SWELLS SPREADING S FROM STORM SYSTEM NW OF AREA SHOULD 
CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 20-30 KT N-NE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 20 WITHIN 
30 HRS AS HIGH PRES CENTER OVER GULF OF MEXICO IS REPLACED WITH 
DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER.  SIMILARLY...GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS 
DIE OFF WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS. 

WALLY BARNES