000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141001
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...3N78W 6N85W 4N90W 10N118W  
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 115W 
AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
ARIZONA TO A STATIONARY BUT COMPLEX TROPICAL UPPER LOW CENTERED 
NEAR 9N127W. UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THIS FEATURE 
SUPPORTS AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED 
ABOVE N OF THE ITCZ. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE 
CONVECTION NEAR 120W...POSSIBLY TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT TO THE N 
AND ENHANCING NE FLOW. FURTHER W....A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS 
DIGGING TO THE N OF HAWAII...N OF 20N ALONG 148W WITH A 
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR 29N148W. ASSOCIATED 
SURFACE LOW AND FRONT TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW STALL THROUGH 
MON AS THEY PUSH INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
28N138W BY EARLY TUE. THE PRESENCE OF THE STATIONARY LOW WEAKENS 
THE HIGH PRES IN THE AREA. THE TROPICAL UPPER LOW NEAR 10N127W 
FILLS AS WELL...WEAKENING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 
THE ITCZ. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE MARGINAL TRADES INTO MID WEEK. 
NW SWELL UP TO 11FT WITH PERIODS UP TO 17S WILL CONTINUE TO RAKE 
THE BAJA COAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL 
APPROACH THE BAJA COAST BY MIDWEEK.

E OF 110W...MAIN EVENT IS WIND STARTING TO PICKING UP IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS DENSE HIGH PRES AREA PUSHES INTO THE GULF 
OF MEXICO. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20 TO 30 KT AND WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT AND TUE. IN ADDITION A 
0340 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A 0122 UTC QUIKSCAT 
PASS INDICATED FRESH NWLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA...BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE NW AND TROUGH OVER THE 
SW U.S. AN AREA OF NW SWELL OF UP TO 8 FT WITH PERIODS TO 16S 
WILL MOVE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST MON...REACHING THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY MIDDAY TUE WHERE N TO NE WINDS WILL BE JUST 
STARTING TO DIMINISH. 

COBB