000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140347
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...3N78W 6N84W 5N90W 9N119W  
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ FROM 115W TO 
122W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
TO A STATIONARY TROPICAL UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 9N126W. UPPER 
DIVERGENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS AREAS OF 
CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE N OF THE ITCZ. A WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION NEAR 120W...POSSIBLY 
TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT TO THE N AND ENHANCING NE FLOW. FURTHER 
W....A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING TO THE N OF HAWAII. AN 
UPPER LOW CUTS OFF TO THE NE OF HAWAII OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED 
SURFACE LOW AND FRONT TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW STALL THROUGH 
MON AS THEY PUSH INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
28N138W BY EARLY TUE. THE PRESENCE OF THE STATIONARY LOW WEAKENS 
THE HIGH PRES IN THE AREA. THE TROPICAL UPPER LOW NEAR 10N127W 
FILLS AS WELL...WEAKENING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 
THE ITCZ. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE MARGINAL TRADES INTO MID WEEK. 
NW SWELL UP TO 11FT WITH PERIODS UP TO 17S WILL CONTINUE TO RAKE 
THE BAJA COAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL 
APPROACH THE BAJA COAST BY MIDWEEK.

E OF 110W...BIG STORY IS WIND STARTING TO PICKING UP IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC AS DENSE HIGH PRES AREA PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT...PERSISTING 
THROUGH THROUGH TUE. LIKEWISE...QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 15Z SHOWED UP 
TO 25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LAND BASED 
OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH SOME ASCAT DATA SHOW FRESH NWLY FLOW 
THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE NW AND 
TROUGH OVER THE SW U.S. AN AREA OF NW SWELL OF UP TO 8 FT WITH 
PERIODS TO 16S WILL MOVE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST MON...REACHING 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WHERE FRESH NELY FLOW 
WILL BE JUST STARTING TO DIMINISH. 

CHRISTENSEN