000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132223
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...5N77W  5N80W 7N86W  5N96W  
9N119W  5N130W 4N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ FROM 115W TO 127W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
TO A STATIONARY TROPICAL UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N127W. UPPER 
DIVERGENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A AREAS OF 
CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE ALONG THE ITCZ. A WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH IS POSSIBLE EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION NEAR 120W. A SHIP 
OBSERVATION TO THE N OF THIS AREA REPORTED 25 KT 
WINDS...INDICATIVE OF A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES TO THE N. MEANWHILE A STRONG UPPER 
TROUGH IS DIGGING TO THE N OF HAWAII. AN UPPER LOW WILL BECOME 
CUTOFF TO THE NE OF HAWAII TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND 
FRONT TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW STALL THROUGH MON AS THEY PUSH 
INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 28N138W BY EARLY 
TUE. THE PRESENCE OF THE STATIONARY LOW WEAKENS THE HIGH PRES IN 
THE AREA. THE TROPICAL UPPER LOW NEAR 10N127W FILLS AS 
WELL...WEAKENING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ. 
THE NET EFFECT WILL BE MARGINAL TRADES INTO MID WEEK. NW SWELL 
UP TO 11FT WITH PERIODS UP TO 17S WILL CONTINUE TO RAKE THE BAJA 
COAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW SWELL WILL APPROACH THE 
BAJA COAST BY MIDWEEK.

E OF 110W...BIG STORY IS WIND STARTING TO PICKING UP IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC AS DENSE HIGH PRES AREA PUSHES INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT...PERSISTING 
THROUGH THROUGH TUE. LIKEWISE...QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 15Z SHOWED UP 
TO 25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LAND BASED 
OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH SOME ASCAT DATA SHOW FRESH NWLY FLOW 
THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE NW AND 
TROUGH OVER THE SW U.S. AN AREA OF NW SWELL OF UP TO 8 FT WITH 
PERIODS TO 16S WILL MOVE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST MON...REACHING 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WHERE FRESH NELY FLOW 
WILL BE JUST STARTING TO DIMINISH. 

CHRISTENSEN