000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131622
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...10N85W 5N100W 7N125W 7N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N120W TO STATIONARY MID/UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 11N129W.  MOSTLY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT W 
OF TROUGH.  DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON E SIDE PRODUCING MINOR 
CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 115W-120W.

MID/UPPER LEVEL DOWNSTREAM RIDGE MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS UNDER 
ITS COVERAGE TO 95W EXCEPT SWATH OF CONVECTION DEBRIS ADVECTED 
NE BY WEAK 55 KT JTST RIDING ON ITS CREST.  SECOND UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTEND FROM YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS GUATEMALA TO EQUATOR 
AT 86W.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES N 
OF ITCZ E OF 95W.

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER WELL N OF AREA HAS LONGITUDE ORIENTED AXIS TO 
10N140W.  BUILDING RIDGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NW WINDS ALONG 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA SPREADING S FOR AT LEAST 48 HRS THEN RETRACT 
BACK N AND DIMINISH. 

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO TO 
INCREASE N WIND ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN NEXT 12 HRS 
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.  

WALLY BARNES