000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122211
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...4N78W 4N90W 6N100W 6N110W 
8N120W 7N132W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 119W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 12N128W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS 
DESCRIBED ABOVE. OTHERWISE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE IS PREVENTING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. MODERATE TO 
FRESH NE TO E WINDS PERSIST ON THE PERIPHERY OF A 1029 MB 
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N130W. THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE 
AMPLIFIED N OF 30N THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPEN  
TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC DIGS EAST THEN CUTS OFF NE OF 
HAWAII. THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE AHEAD OF AN 
EMERGING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT NE OF HAWAII ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE UPPER TROUGH. AS THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF...THE SURFACE LOW 
AND FRONT STALL ON MON JUST AS THEY ENTER THE FAR NW CORNER OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N140W. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THAT 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. 
MEANWHILE THE WAVEWATCH MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW 
SWELL UP TO 16 FT WITH 15 SECOND PERIODS ENTERING THE AREA 
MON/TUE.

E OF 110W...SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS SHOW 
FRESH NLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE E OF HIGH 
PRES OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC. WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A 
REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE 
NORTH. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N...EXPECT 20 TO 25 KT FLOW 
OVER THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA BY MON. SIMILARLY...INCREASING TRADES 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL INDUCE FRESH ELY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO SUN INTO MON.

CHRISTENSEN