000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112214
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...6N77W 3N89W 6N108W 5N113W 8N123W
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 116W 
AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...
REX BLOCK PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH UPPER RIDGE ALONG 
ROUGHLY 25N...N OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N130W. 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING 
MODEST CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE...ALONG WITH MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDINESS BETWEEN 110W AND 120W S OF 20N. 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH 
REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR 31N130W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS SHOW PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF THE 
HIGH AND ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST. 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE CONFIRMING WAVEWATCH INITIALIZATION OF 
LARGE NWLY SWELL PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. 

LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER PATTERN N OF 30N 
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGS EWD TO THE N 
OF HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. UPPER TROUGH ALSO DIGS THROUGH THE SW U.S. 
THROUGH MON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE REX BLOCK PATTERN TO FINALLY 
BREAK DOWN AS THE UPPER LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. THE SURFACE RIDGE 
WILL SHIFT N...ALLOWING MINOR DIMINISHING OF THE TRADES. LARGE 
NW SWELL WILL DECAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT PROPAGATES THROUGH 
THE AREA...BUT ANOTHER ROUND IS DUE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FURTHER 
E...GAP WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE STARTING EARLY SUN IN BOTH 
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO AREAS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GULF 
OF MEXICO AND TRADES INCREASE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. THE OTHER 
AREA OF INTEREST IS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE NLY FLOW IS 
LIKELY ONGOING...AND THIS MAY INCREASE TO 20 KT BY LATE SAT.

CHRISTENSEN