000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110311
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JAN 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...6N77W 5N80W 5N85W 5N98W 6N128W 
4N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IS EVIDENT IN SHIP AND 
SCATTEROMETER DATA THIS EVENING...SOUTH OF A 1025 MB SURFACE 
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N132W. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NW FLOW IS ALSO 
EVIDENT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OFF THE NRN BAJA 
COAST...AND DOWN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE N OF 15N W OF 
115W...LARGE NWLY SWELL OF UP TO 10 FT WITH 16 SECOND PERIOD 
CONTINUES TO DECAY AS IT PUSHES SW. ALOFT...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM NRN MEXICO SW TO A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR 14N132W. AN UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE N OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 24N140W TO 27N127W 
TO NRN BAJA. THIS REX BLOCK PATTERN IS ALLOWING FAIRLY DRY 
MID/UPPER LEVEL NLY FLOW TO PUSH S INTO THE DEEP TROPICS W OF 
130W. DIVERGENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS ALLOWING FOR 
SPORADIC SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. A 
SECOND...WEAKER UPPER TROUGH IS EVIDENT FURTHER E S OF 12N ALONG 
ROUGHLY 90W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS 
ENHANCING WEAK BUT PERSISTENT SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 87W. 

THE REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 
UPPER PATTERN N OF 20N WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE 
AMPLIFIED...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING MORE TO THE NE. THIS 
WILL ALLOW TRADES AND NLY FLOW OFF BAJA TO VERY GRADUALLY 
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NLY FLOW THROUGH 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STARTING SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE 
N. CONVECTION MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRI THROUGH SUN ALONG THE 
ITCZ NEAR 120W...ON THE E SIDE OF THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW. 
MEANWHILE...WAVEWATCH III MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER GROUP OF LARGE NW 
SWELL ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC LATE SAT. 

CHRISTENSEN