000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 5N77W 5N100W 7N115W 6N130W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 5N112W 8N125W 8N140W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH LIES ALONG THE WESTERN SEABOARD 
OF N AMERICA WITH AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO 
THE AREA ALONG 32N114W 23N116W 17N130W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED NEAR HAWAII HAS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 
32N145W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPILLING ACROSS THE RIDGE OVER THE 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 27N AND W OF 114W. DRY UPPER AIR LIES ALONG 
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 32N105W 
TO 23N120W WHERE THE BAND BROADENS TO COVER THE AREA FROM 15N TO 
27N W OF 120W.

A TROPICAL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 9N109W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING W TO A SHARP CREST NEAR 11N130W. THIS RIDGE LIES 
ROUGHLY IN PHASE WITH THE ITCZ AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG 
ITS AXIS FROM 108W TO BEYOND 140W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE 
IS SPREADING NE TO ALONG 19N BETWEEN 130W AND 110W.

A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS WELL S OF THE AREA AT 21S70W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING NW ACROSS THE EQUATOR TO A CREST ALONG 5N95W 
24N90W 21N70W. A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 5N103W AND 
SEPARATES THIS LARGE UPPER RIDGE FROM A TROPICAL RIDGE DESCRIBED 
ABOVE. GENERALLY THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY S OF 27N E OF 
107W AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...EXCEPT FOR A 
FEW CELLS OF MODERATE CONVECTION FLARING ALONG 5N E OF 84W. THE 
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS SPREADING NE ACROSS NW 
COLOMBIA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 10N76W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...HIGH PRES 27N143W 1025 MB RIDGES E TO THE 
BAJA PENINSULA AT 24N. TO THE S OF THIS RIDGE...NE TRADES IN THE 
20-25 KT RANGE ARE NOTED WITH SEAS 12-15 FT WITH NW SWELL. 
ADDITIONALLY THE NW SWELLS RANGING FROM 12-17 FT CONTINUE TO 
PROPAGATE S OVER THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE TO THE BAJA PENINSULA 
N OF 25N. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 20 
KT TONIGHT. STRONG NE TRADES IN THE W CARIBBEAN SEAS ARE 
EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP THROUGH 48 
HOURS. 

$$
NELSON