000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061615
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...ALONG 5N77W 5N100W 7N115W 
6N130W 8N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF 
AXIS FROM 107W TO 120W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM 32N118W TO 20N134W FLATTENS 
CREST OF MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ZONAL WIND FLOW 15N-23N E OF 
130W.  TROUGH ALSO KEEPS VERY DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 240 NM NW OF 
AXIS.  WEAK 55 KT CORE ZONAL WIND ADVECTING MOISTURE DEBRIS FROM 
ITCZ E BUT DOES NOT REACH ANY LAND AS OF YET.  MOST E PAC 
REMAINS DRY 20N-27N AND ENTIRE REGION E OF 108W.  RIDGE WITH ONE 
FOCI AT 10N111W AND SECOND AT 17N99W MAINTAIN DRY CAP OVER AREA. 

WEAK BUT PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 
4N101W RESPONSIBLE FOR CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND DRYNESS OVER 
REMAINDER OF E PAC.

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1023 MB AT 27N132W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 18N120W KEEPING 
STRONG NE TRADES W OF 120W.  NW SWELL RANGING FROM 15-20 FT 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE S FROM STORM N OF BASIN...BRINGING HIGH 
SURF TO BAJA CALIFORNIA W COAST.  SWELL REACHING EQUATOR AS IT 
DECAYS FOR NEXT 48 HOURS.  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN UNDER 20 KT WITHIN 36 
HRS BUT GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 
FORECAST PERIOD. 

$$
WALLY BARNES