000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JAN 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0930 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...ALONG AXIS 5N77W 4N96W 8N115W 
6N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM N OF AXIS W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...ASCAT DATA FROM 03Z SHOWED 30 KT FLOW CONTINUING IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DECREASES FURTHER...AND 
AS SLIGHTLY COOLER SST'S OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ADD TO 
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY. FRESH TO STRONG ELY FLOW PERSISTS 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS WELL DUE TO PERSISTENT STRONG 
WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN. NELY SWELL...GENERATED OVER THE PAST 
THREE DAYS FROM THE STRONG GAP WINDS...CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE 
AWAY FROM THE COAST INTO THE OPEN PACIFIC GENERALLY S OF 14N 
WHERE IT MIXES WITH LARGE NWLY SWELL. OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER 
TROUGH REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO SW TO 
5N100W. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
AREA...AND THUS CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION. 

W OF 110W...A VERY BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH FROM 30N120W 
TO 20N130W WILL SHIFT E THROUGH MON AHEAD OF AN UPPER RIDGE 
BUILDING E OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AN ASSOCIATED 1024 MB 
SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA CURRENTLY NE OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL SHIFT 
E TO NEAR 28N140W BY TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...A MODEST AREA OF 
TRADE WINDS W OF AROUND 130W WILL INCREASE IN AREA AND INTENSITY 
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND 
JASON ALTIMETER DATA CONFIRM NWLY SWELL RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 FT 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE N CENTRAL 
PACIFIC...LIKELY BRINGING HIGH SURF TO THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST. 
MUCH OF THIS SWELL WILL PUSH TO THE EQUATOR AS IT DECAYS OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED NEAR 11N111W...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW TOWARD 
15N140W. UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE SW SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS 
ENHANCING MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN