000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051628
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JAN 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1445 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...ALONG 4N77W 4N88W 3N97W 9N124W  
7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS FROM 
106W TO 116W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 119W TO 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS ACROSS SRN TIP OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 19N140W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 120 NM OF 
TROUGH AXIS AND WELL N OF AXIS W OF 125W.  WEAK 50 KT JET CORE 
ADVECTS TROPICAL MOISTURE OUT OF ITCZ NE INTO S CENTRAL MEXICO 
AND INTO GULF OF MEXICO.  MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH CENTER AT 
10N111W COVERS ENTIRE BASIN S OF TROUGH W OF 100W ALLOWING 
MOISTURE TO MOVE OVER ITS NW AND N PERIPHERY.  ADDITIONAL MOIST 
AIR MASS N OF TROUGH E OF 104W MOVING E INTO SRN AND BAJA 
CALIFORNIA FORCED BY HUGE STORM N OF E PAC BASIN.

DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER ATLC BASIN DIGS SW INTO E PAC E OF 100W 
WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG GAP WINDS IN GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC... 
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA DIMINISHING BUT STILL LINGER.  GALE FORCE 
EVENT AT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO BE OVER WITHIN 18 HRS 
AS STRONG HIGH PRES 1034 MB WEAKENS AND MOVE INTO ATLC BASIN.  

VERY LARGE NW SWELL TRAINS MOVING INTO E PAC SPREADING AS FAR AS 
EQUATOR.  COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS 14-18 FT EXPECTED AS STORM N OF 
AREA MOVES INLAND.  HEALTHY HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND STORM WITH 
NE TRADES REESTABLISHING THEIR PATTERN.

$$
WALLY BARNES