000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051015 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JAN 04 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...ALONG AXIS 4N77W 3N81W 4N90W 3N95W 9N128W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 131W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W...GAPS WINDS IN THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE. QUIKSCAT PASS FROM YESTERDAY EVENING SHOWED PERSISTENT GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA...THE RESULT OF STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWED STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...BUT JUST BELOW GALE STRENGTH. LARGE SWELL FROM THESE CONTINUING ELY WIND EVENTS ARE PROPAGATING W AND SW...REACHING THE N SHORES OF THE GALAPAGOS. FRESH NLY FLOW CONTINUES AS WELL THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA...BUT THIS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN VEERS MORE ELY. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUATEMALA TO 5N96W...E OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. W OF 110W...UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICAN TO UPPER TROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 10N112W. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EVIDENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROPICAL RIDGE IS AIDING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. TO THE NORTH...UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS A PAIR OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH MIGRATE E INTO BAJA. AS A RESULT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA THE AREA IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE STATIONARY. MAIN ISSUE FOR MARINERS CONTINUES TO BE LARGE NWLY SWELL OF UP TO 15 FT N OF 15N. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF DOWN THE NRN BAJA COAST STARTING LATE TODAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD NEAR 25N135W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING TRADE WIND FLOW TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO THE S. $$ CHRISTENSEN