000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JAN 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG THE LINE...3N80W 
5N110W 8N120W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 117W...AND WITHIN 140 
NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 135W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS 
ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
19N140W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM 
THE NW...PRECEDED BY FRESH TO STRONG SWLY FLOW N OF 25N AND W OF 
125W. E OF THIS...1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS SHIFTING TOWARD 
BAJA...MAINTAINING 20 KT TRADES TO ITS SOUTH. LARGE NWLY SWELL 
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AN 
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE EPAC E OF 110W. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED ALONG THE RIDGE 
AXIS. THIS IS KEEPING CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM.

GAP WINDS...STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUES TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WHILE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 55 KT FLOW IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC AREA. SEA LEVEL PRESSURES ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO WERE STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF 
STORM FORCE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AS 
SURFACE HIGH PRES TO N SHIFTS E AND WINDS VEER MORE SELY... 
EXPECT TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS TO DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE WITHIN 24 
HOUR THEN BELOW GALE BY 36 HOURS. STRONG ELY FLOW IN CARIBBEAN 
WILL SUSTAIN GALE FORCE WINDS IN PAPAGAYO AREA THROUGH EARLY 
TODAY...THEN ALLOW WINDS TO DROP BELOW GALE LATE. STRONG WINDS 
ARE ALSO NOTED IN GULF OF PANAMA AND GULF OF FONSECA AS WELL PER 
SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THESE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 
TODAY AS WELL. THE PERSISTENT NE AND E FLOW IS GENERATING LARGE 
ELY SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE AS FAR AS 120W THROUGH THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
GR