000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041009
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG THE LINE...2N78W 4N85W 
4N99W 9N117W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM 
N OF AXIS BETWEEN 1112W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...MAIN REMAINS STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND GALES IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. 00Z QUIKSCAT DATA 
SHOWED 55 KT FLOW IN TEHUANTEPEC AREA. SEA LEVEL PRESSURES ALONG 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WERE STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE 
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF STORM FORCE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. AS SURFACE HIGH PRES TO N SHIFTS E AND WINDS 
VEER MORE SELY...EXPECT TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 
GALE FORCE WITHIN 24 HOUR THEN BELOW GALE BY 36 HOURS. STRONG 
ELY FLOW IN CARIBBEAN WILL SUSTAIN GALE FORCE WINDS IN PAPAGAYO 
AREA THROUGH EARLY TODAY...THEN ALLOW WINDS TO DROP BELOW GALE 
LATE. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED IN GULF OF PANAMA AND GULF OF 
FONSECA AS WELL PER SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THESE 
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS WELL. THE PERSISTENT NE AND E 
FLOW IS GENERATING LARGE ELY SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE AS FAR AS 
120W THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
ALONG 102W FROM NRN MEXICO TO 10N...FOLLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH 
FROM GULF OF MEXICO AS FAR AS 7N. MID/UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DRY 
KEEPING CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM.

W OF 110W...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N120W TO 19N140W. 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG SE OF TROUGH ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR 
ITCZ AS NOTED ABOVE. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER 
FEATURE IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NW...PRECEDED BY FRESH 
TO STRONG SWLY FLOW N OF 25N AND W OF 125W. E OF THIS...1021 MB 
SURFACE HIGH PRES IS SHIFTING TOWARD BAJA...MAINTAINING 20 KT 
TRADES TO ITS SOUTH. LARGE NWLY SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE 
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MWW3 IS INDICATING 
ADDITIONAL NWLY SWELL WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD THE BAJA COAST THIS 
WEEKEND. 12 TO 15 FT SWELL WITH PERIODS OF UP TO 16S WILL RAKE 
THE NRN BAJA COAST BY LATE SAT INTO SUN.  

$$
CHRISTENSEN