000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040409
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JAN 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG THE LINE...3N77W 4N95W 
7N120W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 112W 
AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 
134W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE AREA WITH A SHARP TROUGH 
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N125W SWD TO NEAR 23N124W...THEN FRACTURES 
WSWWD THROUGH 19N140W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JTST EXTENDED THROUGH 
18N140W 23N125W NEWD THROUGH EXTREME S CALIFORNIA AND WAS 
ADVECTING A PLUME OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH 
MULTI-LAYERED OVERCAST CLOUDS NEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO 
THIRDS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SW CONUS. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED JTST CORE SPEEDS OF 110 KT. 

RIDGE AXIS OVER MEXICO N OF 20N ALONG 105W WAS BECOMING IN PHASE 
WITH A TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 105W S OF 15N. DOWNSTREAM 
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SWWD TO 
8N95W WITHIN AN AREA NOTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY 
AIR ALOFT.

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NOTED NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 110W WITH A 1020
MB CENTER NEAR 25N118W. STRONG RIDGE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS TO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREAS. WEAK TROUGH IS 
ALONG THE ITCZ.

GAP WINDS...
A 0046 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED STORM FORCE 
WINDS CONTINUED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH 50-55 
KT...LOCALLY 60 KT WINDS STILL OCCURRING IN THE MOST PROLONGED 
STORM FORCE OR GREATER WIND EVENT SINCE THE ADVENT OF QUIKSCAT 
DATA IN 1999. THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY AND 
FALL BELOW STORM FORCE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND BELOW GALE 
FORCE WITHIN 36 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH SHIFTS E AND 
WEAKENS. THE PERSISTENT NE TO E WINDS WILL RESULT IN LARGE NELY 
SWELL TO BUILD AND SHIFT FAR TO THE W AND SW...REACHING THE 
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SWELLS TO REACH 12 
FT ON NORTH FACING COASTAL AREAS. IN THE MEANTIME STRONG ELY 
FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN HAS INDUCED A GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT 
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. GFS 30M WINDS SHOW GALE CONDITIONS JUST 
W OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FRESH WINDS ARE 
ALSO PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. 

$$
COBB