000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032206 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU JAN 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG THE LINE...3N77W 9N110W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF 8.4N109.4W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF 10.7N110.7W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF 9N115.6W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF 9.5N127.7W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS... AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE AREA WITH A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N128W SWD TO NEAR 22N127W...THEN FRACTURES WSWWD THROUGH 20N140W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JTST EXTENDED THROUGH 18N140W 22N125W NEWD THROUGH 32N120W AND WAS ADVECTING A PLUME OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MULTI-LAYERED OVERCAST CLOUDS NEWD ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...NORTHWEST PART OF MEXICO INTO THE SW CONUS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED JTST CORE SPEEDS OF 110 KT. RIDGE AXIS OVER MEXICO N OF 20N ALONG 107W WAS BECOMING IN PHASE WITH A TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 105W S OF 15N. DOWNSTREAM WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SWWD TO 8N95W WITHIN AN AREA NOTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT. SURFACE... WEAK RIDGE IS NOTED NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 110W WITH A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR 25N124W. STRONG RIDGE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREAS. WEAK TROUGH IS ALONG THE ITCZ. GAP WINDS... A 1216 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A STRONG STORM FORCE WIND EVENT CONTINUING OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SUBSEQUENT 1642 UTC QSCAT PASS MISSED THE CORE OF THE EVENT. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT 50-55 KT WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING IN ONE OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENTS OF THE PAST 5 YEARS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. THE PERSISTENT NE TO E WINDS WILL WILL LARGE ELY SWELL TO BUILD AND SHIFT FAR TO THE W AND SW...REACHING EVEN THE GALAPAGOS. IN THE MEANTIME STRONG ELY FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN HAS INDUCED A GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. GFS 30M WINDS SHOW GALE CONDITIONS JUST W OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. $$ COBB