000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031519
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JAN 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG THE LINE...5N77W 
9N110W 9N120W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINTS 9N109W AND 9N128W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 8N116.7W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 11.3N TO 
13N FROM 112W TO 119W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
TROUGH IS NORTH OF LINE 32N125W 23N128W 17N140W. A PLUME OF 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MULTIPLE LEVEL OVERCAST 
CLOUDS EXTENDS 400 NM SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE LINE. THESE 
CLOUDS ARE ADVECTING OVER THE NORTH HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
NORTHWEST PART OF MEXICO. ANOTHER AREA OF OVERCAST UPPER LEVEL 
CLOUDS IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA N OF 25N WEST OF 
134W.

WEAK MAINLY UPPER TROUGH IS SOUTH OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

THE AREA EAST OF 100W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS.

SURFACE...
WEAK TROUGH IS NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 125W. WEAK RIDGE IS 
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 115W.  STRONG RIDGE OVER 
MEXICO EXTENDS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
AREAS. WEAK TROUGH IS ALONG THE ITCZ.

STORM FORCE WINDS OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE RESULT OF VERY 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 04Z 
SHOWED HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 50 KT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS THE HIGH PRES 
TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. THE PERSISTENT NE TO E WINDS 
WILL WILL LARGE ELY SWELL TO BUILD AND SHIFT FAR TO THE W AND 
SW...REACHING EVEN THE GALAPAGOS. MEANWHILE...STRONG ELY FLOW 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL INDUCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. GFS 30M WINDS SHOW GALE CONDITIONS JUST W OF THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO PUSHING 
INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
LL