000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031010
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JAN 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG THE LINE...4N77W 5N83W 
10N117W 8N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. 

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 115W...
MAIN ISSUE IS STORM FORCE WINDS OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A 
QUIKSCAT PASS YESTERDAY SHOWED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN THIS 
AREA...THE RESULT OF VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH AND PUSHING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS. AN 
ASCAT PASS FROM 04Z SHOWED HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 50 KT...WHICH 
INDICATES THAT PEAK WINDS MAY HAVE OCCURRED. THE STRONG WINDS 
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS THE HIGH 
PRES TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. THE PERSISTENT NE TO E 
WINDS WILL WILL LARGE ELY SWELL TO BUILD AND SHIFT FAR TO THE W 
AND SW...REACHING EVEN THE GALAPAGOS. MEANWHILE...STRONG ELY 
FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL INDUCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO. GFS 30M WINDS AS WELL AS UKMET SHOW A BRIEF WINDOW 
OF GALE CONDITIONS JUST W OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE THU NIGHT 
INTO EARLY FRI. FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE...OVER GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...THE FRESH NWLY FLOW IS DIMINISHING DUE TO STRONG 
HIGH PRES TO THE EAST...AND WEAKENING HIGH PRES TO THE WEST. 
ALOFT...UPPER DIVERGENT FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF A SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH NEAR 120W IS ENHANCING WEAK CONVECTION ALONG 110W N OF 
THE ITCZ...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY. FAIRLY 
DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXCEPT 
NRN BAJA WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ADVECTING FROM THE SW 
AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST.

W OF 115W...
MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM 30N130W TO 24N132W TO 20N140W IS DIGGING 
EWD. A BROAD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE 
TROUGH. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG 120W FROM 10N TO 18N IS 
LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF THE BROADER TROUGH TO THE NW. DIVERGENCE 
ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THE 
TWO TROUGH FEATURES IS ENHANCING MODEST CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
UPPER TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N134W TO 26N140W. A REINFORCING 
COLD FRONT TO THE N WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND WILL 
OVERTAKE THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE 1020 MB HIGH 
PRES TO THE E OF THE FRONT NEAR 25N125W WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND 
SHIFT E TO 28N118W AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW 
TRADES TO THE S TO WEAKEN FURTHER. LARGE SWELL WILL PUSH INTO 
THE AREA FROM THE NW AND MERGE WITH ELY SWELL NEAR 120W 
DEVELOPING FROM STRONG GAP WINDS TO THE E.

$$
CHRISTENSEN