000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030406
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JAN 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG THE LINE...5N77W 4N90W
10N117W 8N130W 9N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180-240
NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 115W...AND WITHIN 90-120 NM OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 138W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
SHARP WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG AXIS 32N131W 
THROUGH A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 27N133W THEN TO
21N140W WAS DIGGING ESEWD 20 KT. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING 
NE OVER THE AREA NORTH OF 20N DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. A 
PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERCAST MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS 
EXTENDS WITHIN 600 NM E OF THE TROUGH AND WILL SPREAD OVER 
NORTHWEST MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS AREA OF 
MOISTURE WAS CAPPING AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALONG 117W. FURTHER 
E...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OVER W-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO IS 
LIFTING NEWD AT 15 -20 KT AND WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES 
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 

WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF THE ITCZ. THE AREA IS 
DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH MOSTLY 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

SURFACE...
WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE 
AREA ALONG 30N134W 27N140W AND IS EXPECTED TO RESUME EWD 
MOVEMENT AS A COLD FRONT BUT WEAKEN AS MAIN UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS 
OUT TO THE NE. OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 
115W. 

GAP WINDS...
THE EDGE OF A 0112 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 50-55 KT WINDS 
ABOUT 120 NM SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE LOCATION OF 
THESE WINDS FAR FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC COUPLED WITH STRONG 
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC SUGGESTS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AS NOTED EARLIER THIS LATEST WIND 
EVENT REPRESENTS THE STRONGEST GAP WIND EVENT IN THE AREA SINCE 
30-31 MARCH 2003. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST 
ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING TO STORM FORCE. FURTHER 
DOWN THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST THE EDGE OF ANOTHER QUIKSCAT 
PASS INDICATED STRONG NELY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA AND 
PAPAGAYO. MERGING STRONG ELY WINDS THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC AND 
PAPAGAYO AREAS WILL INDUCE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH SEAS...MAINLY 
SOUTH OF 18N AND EAST OF 115W THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH COMBINED 
SEAS HEIGHTS REACHING 27 FT. NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
PANAMA WILL CONTINUE IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH 36 HOURS
OR SO.

$$
COBB