000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JAN 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG THE LINE...5N77W 
8N105W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 
THE POINT 7.7N126.7W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
THE AREA FROM 9N TO 11N FROM 110W TO 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 8.5N139.5W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N113W IS OVER NORTHWEST 
MEXICO AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST 
U.S. IN 24 HOURS.  ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS IS E OF 110.5W AND 
NORTH OF 27N.

WELL DEFINED TROUGH IS NW OF LINE 32N126W 23N140W. THE TROUGH 
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA NORTH OF 20N DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERCAST MULTI LEVEL 
CLOUDS EXTENDS WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE ABOVE LINE AND WILL MOVE 
OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO IN THE NEXT DAY OF TWO.

WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF THE ITCZ. THE AREA IS 
DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH MOSTLY 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA NEAR 4.5N THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE 16N86W TO THE 
ITCZ NEAR 100W IS VERY DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS.

SURFACE...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AND IS 
EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. 
OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 115W. 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS WEAK TROUGH.

SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOWED NEAR STORM 
CONDITIONS THIS PAST EVENING. FURTHER DOWN THE CENTRAL AMERICAN 
COAST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG ELY FLOW THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. MERGING STRONG ELY WINDS THROUGH THE 
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO AREAS WILL INDUCE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH 
SEAS...MAINLY SOUTH OF 18N AND EAST OF 115W THROUGH THU 
NIGHT...WITH COMBINED SEAS HEIGHTS REACHING 25 FT. NORTHERLY 
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL CONTINUE IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT 
RANGE THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
LL