000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020949
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 5N77W 6N100W 10N115W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 45 NM S 
OF THE AXIS AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W 
AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 115W...
SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOWED NEAR STORM 
CONDITIONS THIS PAST EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM 
THE N THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. FURHTER DOWN THE CENTRAL 
AMERCIAN COAST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG ELY FLOW 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW 20 TO 25 KT NWLY FLOW FUNNELING DOWN THE 
LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES 
TO THE W. MEANWHILE SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS EVIDENT BETWEEN AN UPPER 
TROUGH OVER THE U.S. AND AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN. THE RESULTING SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING MODEST 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. WEAK NOCTURNAL 
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA 
WHERE THE COAST INTERSECTS THE ITCZ. FAIRLY DRY AIR OVER THE 
REGION IS INHIBITING LARGE SCALE CONVECTION HOWEVER. LOOKING 
AHEAD...THE MERGING STRONG ELY WINDS THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC AND 
PAPAGAYO AREAS WILL INDUCE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH SEAS...MAINLY 
SOUTH OF 18N THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH COMBINED SEAS HEIGHTS 
REACHING 25 FT. FUNNELING WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL 
DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS THE THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE W 
WEAKENS...AND HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

W OF 115W...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG 122W FROM 5N TO 20N IS SHIFTNG SLOWLY E 
AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER RIDGE ALONG ROUGHLY 128W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT 
TO THE E OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ AS MENTIONED ABOVE. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH 
IS NOTED ALONG 115W. A NORTHERN SEGEMENT OF THIS UPPER TROUGH 
THAT HAS BECOME DETACHED AS THE RIDGE MOVES E...IS NOW LIFTING 
OUT THROUGH NRN BAJA. THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER REMAINS AN LONG 
WAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE AREA NE OF THE HAWAIIAN 
ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES 1021 MB CENTERED NEAR 
31N128W WILL DROP S AND WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER 
RIDGE. THIS WILL ALOW FRESH TRADES DEPICTED BY SCATTEROMETER 
DATA S OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. A FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE WILL 
DIG INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW WED AND THU. SWLY FLOW WILL 
INCREASE BETWEEN THE FRONTAL TROUGH AND THE WEAKENING HIGH PRES. 
LARGE SWELL WILL PRECEDE THE ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AS WELL AND 
COVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 120W BY THU NIGHT. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN