000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011512
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0800 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS RUNS ALONG THE LINE...6N77W 
8N110W 8N115W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 170 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 118W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR 8N135W.

...DISCUSSION...
A CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED NEAR 27N121W IS MOVING NE ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG 
120W TO NEAR 18N. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS 
FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W WHILE AMPLE UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS SEEN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS SPREADING 
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA/NW MEXICO AND THE STATES OF CALIFORNIA 
AND ARIZONA. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH JUST N OF 
HISPANIOLA DOMINATES SOUTH MEXICO AND THE EPAC E OF 110W. THIS 
FEATURE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. A DEEP LAYERED 
TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW SUPPORTING A STRONG 
COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW IN THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS...PRECEDED BY LARGE NW SWELL. HIGH PRES DOMINATES 
THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ W OF 110W WITH THE EASTERLY TRADES S OF 
THE RIDGE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO ABOUT 20 KT AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD 
IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. SOUTH OF THE 
ITCZ...THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS WITH LARGE AREAS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
 
A STRONG REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS ENTERING THE NW GULF OF 
MEXICO THIS MORNING...AND WILL BRING STORM CONDITIONS TO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA BY WED MORNING. STRONG ELY WINDS OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN WILL BRING NEAR GALE CONDITIONS TO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO BY TOMORROW MORNING. LARGE ELY SWELL WILL EMERGE FROM 
BOTH AREAS EARLY THU OVER PORTIONS OF THE E PACIFIC. MEANWHILE 
NW WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE THE RESULT OF FUNNELING 
ON THE PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH PRES FURTHER W. THIS WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN DIMINISH AS STRONGER HIGH PRES 
BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.


$$
GR