000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011012
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0800 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE...6N77W 
8N85W 8N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 115W...SLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION...ON THE WESTERN EDGE 
OF A BROAD ANTICYCLONE ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN...HAD BEEN 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W AND 110W...BUT 
MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION HAS SUBSIDED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. 
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO BREW WHERE THE ITCZ MEETS 
THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ELSEWHERE...MID AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN 
FAIRLY DRY. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING SHOWS 
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA. A STRONG 
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS ENTERING THE NW GULF OF MEXICO 
THIS MORNING...AND WILL BRING STORM CONDITIONS TO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AREA BY MIDDAY WED. STRONG ELY WINDS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN WILL BRING NEAR GALE CONDITIONS TO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO BY TOMORROW NIGHT. LARGE ELY SWELL WILL EMERGE FROM 
BOTH AREAS BY THU OVER PORTIONS OF THE E PACIFIC. MEANWHILE NW 
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE THE RESULT OF FUNNELING 
ON THE PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH PRES FURTHER W. THIS WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN DIMINISH AS STRONGER HIGH PRES 
BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

W OF 115W...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 123W N OF 17N WILL 
DAMPEN OUT AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO NRN BAJA...AHEAD OF A LARGER 
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. THIS WILL WEAKEN A 
SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FRESH 
TO STRONG TRADES S OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY 
THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT MODERATE TO LARGE NELY SWELL BE SLOWER TO 
DECAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE 
UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW IN THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS...PRECEDED BY LARGE NW SWELL.

$$
EC