000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301519
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN DEC 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...6N77W 7N100W 
9N120W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
60 NM OF THE POINT 7N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 6N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 8.7N130.4W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
TROUGH IS OVER MEXICO NORTH OF A LINE 25N98W 22.5N106W. THE AREA 
IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE AT ALL LEVELS.  A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE AND AND THIN BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS 360 NM SE OF 
THE TROUGH AND IS ADVECTING OVER MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO.

RIDGE IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTH OF 25N WEST OF MEXICO.  THIS 
AREA IS CLEAR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 130W FROM 25N TO 15N. THE SYSTEM IS 
PRODUCING SOME BROKEN MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
TO 120W.

BESIDES SOME ITCZ CONVECTION THE AREA EAST OF A LINE 22N97W TO 
THE ITCZ NEAR 110W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS

WEAK MAINLY UPPER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF THE ITCZ. 

SURFACE...
STRONG RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 115W.  STRONG TRADES 
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE RIDGE.  REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS WEAK TROUGH.

GAP WINDS SURGING TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 
DAY OR SO THROUGH IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO... 
WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO MAX AT 8 FT THEN THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN 
AGAIN SUPPORTING 20 TO 25 KT IN 48 HOURS. 

NLY WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF  
TEHUANTEPEC GAP LATE MON AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE 
TUE AND STORM FORCE WED.

NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL FLUCTUATE AROUND 20 KT 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS MAXING AT 6-7 FT IN CENTRAL 
EXPOSED WATERS.

$$
LL