000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280340
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI DEC 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG...5N77W 8N84W 6N96W 
9N120W 7N127W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM 
N OF AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF A LINE 23N140W 21N122W 
TO BEYOND 26N100W. THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
48 HOURS. PLUME OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING 500
NM SE OF TROUGH LINE E OF 118W IS ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER 
CENTRAL MEXICO. ANOTHER TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ITCZ ACROSS MOST OF 
THE AREA IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS.

VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.
REMAINDER OF UPPER LEVELS IS WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. HOWEVER A 
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE REGION ALONG 120W SOUTH OF 17N IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N FROM 110W TO 120W. THIS 
CONVECTION IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE MOISTURE PLUME OVER MEXICO.

SURFACE...
STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF ITCZ WEST OF 115W. STRONG TRADES 20 TO 30 
KNOTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE. HIGH PRES REMAINS NEARLY 
STATIONARY BEYOND 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

GAP WINDS TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS IN 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A MAJOR WIND EVENT IS SETTING UP FOR GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS...AROUND 40 TO 50 KT...TUE EVENING.

NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL FLUCTUATE AROUND 
20 KT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
MUNDELL