000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED DEC 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...6N77W 7N105W 9N115W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM 
OF THE POINT 6N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 
NM OF THE POINT 10N112W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
WELL DEFINED TROUGH IS NORTH OF A LINE 25N140W 20N125W 20N113W 
26N100W. THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MULTI LEVEL BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST CLOUDS IS 500 NM SE OF THE TROUGH EAST OF 130W. 
THIS MOISTURE IS MOVING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE MOISTURE IS EMANATING FROM CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ.

ANOTHER LESS WELL DEFINED TROUGH IS SOUTH OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE AREA.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.   

EXCEPT FOR ITCZ CONVECTION EAST OF 88W THE AREA SE OF A LINE 
20N95W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 110W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS. THE AREA SOUTH OF A LINE 8N110W EQ135W IS ALSO 
DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

SURFACE...
STRONG RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 117W. STRONG NORTHEAST 
TO EAST TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS TO 15 FEET ARE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LARGE RIDGE. SOME OF THE SEAS ARE DUE TO 
NORTHWEST SWELL ENTERING THE AREA. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS 
ANALYZED AS A WEAK TROUGH.

GAP WINDS HAVE ENDED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.

GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR 24 HOURS IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA THEN DECREASE TO 20 KNOTS AND CONTINUE 
THROUGH 48 HOURS.

NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE IN THE 20 TO 25 
KNOT RANGE BUT WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON THEN 
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN AFTER 24 HOURS.

$$
LL