000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261005
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED DEC 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...8N78W  6N96W  10N114W 
7N134W  7N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF 
AXIS W OF 106W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N 103W S TO 4N109W 
BRINGING A CONTINUOUS FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTIVE 
DEBRIS INTO SRN MEXICO AND ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
JTST 120 KT SUPPORTED BY SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT 32N102W NOW SHIFTING 
NE AS PERSISTENT BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAIN WELL ANCHORED 
OVER CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ANTICYCLONIC CENTER OVER JAMAICA.  
NEVERTHELESS MOISTURE SWATH IS NOT ENOUGH TO PROMPT ANY SIGNIFICANT 
PRECIPITATION EVENT DUE TO A TOTAL ABSENCE OF UPLIFT MECHANISMS AND 
VERY DRY AIR MASS ON BOTH SIDES OF SWATH DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
UNDER CARIBBEAN RIDGE IN THE EAST AND TROUGH AXIS IN THE WEST.  

UPSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH IS ANOTHER RIDGE ALOFT ALONG 146W WHICH 
CONTINUES TO SUPPLY MOISTURE INTO E PAC WITH HELP OF 95 KT JET CORE. 

AT THE SURFACE...HEALTHY HIGH PRES CENTER WELL N OF AREA HAS RIDGE 
SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ENTIRE E PAC N OF ITCZ W 
OF 108W.  STRONG NE TRADES CONTINUE W OF 115W.  NWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW 
FORCING ITS ENTRY INTO NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA CAUSING STRONG WIND 
ALONG ENTIRE GULF DUE TO LOCAL FUNNELING ACTION.  

WINDS OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT 
WITHIN NEXT 6 HRS.

WINDS OVER GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD CONTINUE STRONG WITH MINOR 
DECREASE WITHIN NEXT 48 HRS. 

$$
WALLY BARNES