000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE DEC 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...6N77W 7N100W 10N115W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 6N82W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 14N112W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF 11N120W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
TROUGH IS NORTH OF A LINE 24N140W 20N130W 23N115W 25N105W. A SHORT 
WAVE IS DEVELOPING ALONG 107W AND MOVING SLOWLY EAST OVER NORTHERN 
MEXICO. THE AREA EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS SOME MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIN BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE THE TROUGH 
AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

ANOTHER TROUGH IS IN THE LOW LATITUDES SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 
105W WITH LITTLE ASSOCIATED WEATHER.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THE 
FLOW IS DIFLUENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED 
CONVECTION ABOUT 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 9N130W TO 14N110W. 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EMANATING 
FROM THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHEAST OVER MEXICO SOUTH 
OF 25N.

EXCEPT FOR SOME ITCZ CONVECTION EAST OF 85W THE AREA E OF A LINE 
20N95W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 107W AND SOUTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 120W IS 
DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

SURFACE...
STRONG RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 110W. STRONG TRADE WINDS 
OVER A LARGE PART OF THE PACIFIC REGION WEST OF 115W RESULT FROM THE 
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT. ELSEWHERE WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF 20 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO 
LESS THAN 20 KT IN 12-18 HOURS.

GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL 
DECREASE TO 20 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS THEN CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH 48 HOURS.

NW WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WINDS IN THE NORTH PART OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN RETREAT NORTH 
AND WEAKEN BUT WILL BEGIN AGAIN IN THE NORTH PART IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

$$
MUNDELL