000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE DEC 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG...6N77W 5N90W 8N105W 
10N120W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
POINT 6N81.5W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
POINT 14N106.4W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
150 NM OF THE POINT 13.5N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 121W TO 
129W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
TROUGH IS NORTH OF A LINE 24N140W 20N130W 22N115W 24N110W. A 
SHORTWAVE IS DEVELOPING ALONG 110W AND IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST OVER 
NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE AREA EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS SOME MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIN BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER A FEW AREAS 
IN THE SIERRAS. OTHERWISE THE TROUGH AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

ANOTHER TROUGH IS IN THE LOW LATITUDES SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 
105W WITH LITTLE ASSOCIATED WEATHER.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THE 
FLOW IS DIFLUENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED 
CONVECTION ABOUT 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 16N105W 7N132W. UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EMANATING FROM 
THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHEAST OVER MEXICO SOUTH OF 25N.

EXCEPT FOR SOME ITCZ CONVECTION EAST OF 84W THE AREA E OF A LINE 
20N95W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 107W AND SOUTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 120W IS 
DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

SURFACE...
STRONG RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 110W. STRONG TRADE WINDS 
OVER A LARGE PART OF THE PACIFIC REGION...MAINLY WEST OF 115W...
RESULT FROM THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT. ELSEWHERE WEAK TROUGH 
IS ANALYZED.

GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE 
TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 24 HOURS.

GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL 
DECREASE TO 20 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS THEN CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH 48 HOURS.

NW WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WINDS WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTH PART OF THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH 
24 HOURS THEN RETREAT NORTH AND WEAKEN BUT WILL BEGIN AGAIN IN THE 
NORTH PART IN 48 HOURS.

$$
LL