000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...5N77W 9N110W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE 
POINT 6N80.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N FROM 112W TO 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 115W TO 
120W AND FROM 127W TO 134W AND W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
TROUGH IS NORTH OF A LINE 26N140W 21N125W 29N100W. THE AREA IS 
DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE TROUGH IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WEST OF 125W AND DRIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND THIN 
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS 600 NM S OF THE LINE AND IS ADVECTING 
OVER THE SOUTH PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL MEXICAN 
COAST FROM 19N TO 25N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND IS EXPECTED 
TO CHANGE LITTLE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SOME MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 83W. OTHERWISE 
THE AREA EAST OF A LINE 20N95W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 107W IS DRY AND 
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE AREA SOUTH OF THE 
ITCZ IS ALSO DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

SURFACE...
STRONG RIDGE...WITH 20 TO 25 KT AND OCCASIONALLY TO 30 KT 
SURFACE WINDS... IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 115W. ELSEWHERE 
BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

GAP WINDS OF GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DECREASE 
TO 20 TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH 
48 HOURS.

GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
LL