000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241009
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON DEC 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG 6N77W 6N90W 10N112W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 111W TO 137W.

...DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTEND FROM 32N102W 25N122W 26N130W.  VERY 
DRY AIR MASS N OF AXIS AS CONFLUENT WIND FLOW PROMOTE MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  PLENTY OF AVAILABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE 
ADVECTED E AND NE BY 80 KT JET CORE OF S SIDE OF AXIS WITH PLUME 
CROSSING MEXICO INTO TEXAS AND NW GULF OF MEXICO.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM DEEP TROPICS AT 10N120W NW TO 
28N140W BRINGING A LOT OF MOISTURE INTO E PAC BASIN S OF 
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS.  DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND AVAILABLE 
MOISTURE HAVE MADE ITCZ ACTIVE W OF 110W.

DOWNSTREAM...WELL ANCHORED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CARIBBEAN HAS 
CREST EXTEND NW INTO YUCATAN AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO DRYING OUT 
MOST OF E PAC BASIN S OF 12N E OF 104W.   

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRES 1034 MB HAS HEALTHY RIDGE 
EXTEND TO 15N120W PRODUCING STRONG NE TRADES.  FUNNELING NW WIND 
ENTER GULF OF CALIFORNIA ALSO PRODUCING 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO 8 
FT.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO E-NE WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FORECAST 
PERIOD.  GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT ENDS WITHIN NEXT 12 HRS 
AS HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO DRIFT E INTO SW N ATLC BUT 
20-25 KT WINDS LINGER FOR ANOTHER 36-48 HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES