000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT DEC 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG...6N77W 8N110W 
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
POINT 7N82.4W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 125W TO 131W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF A LINE 27N140W 
25N110W. TWO SHORTWAVES ARE WITHIN THIS TROUGH ONE OS OVER 
NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE OTHER IS NEAR 
133W AND IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE BROADER TROUGH. 
THERE IS NOT MUCH OF ANY WEATHER OR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
BROADER TROUGH.

ANOTHER TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 110W TO 120W. A PLUME 
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS IS EAST OF THE 
TOUGH MOVING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY LARGE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. 
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE ITCZ TO 
16N FROM 125W TO 137W. THIS DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 125W AND 131W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MULTI 
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN THIS AREA.

EXCEPT FOR SOME CONVECTION NEAR THE PANAMA COAST THE AREA EAST 
OF 105W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. 
ALSO THE AREA SOUTH OF THE ITCZ IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

SURFACE...
STRONG RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 115W. ELSEWHERE A 
BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

GAP WINDS OF 20 TO OCCASIONALLY 25 KNOTS WILL BE IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GAP WINDS OF GALE FORCE WILL BEGIN NEAR 18 UTC IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC REGION WITH THE GALE FALLING TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE 
BETWEEN 18 AND 24 HOURS. THE GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 48 
HOURS REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE.

LARGE AREA OF OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS LOCATED WITHIN 300 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 30N140W TO 15N115W.

$$
LL