000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220414
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI DEC 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG...7N78W 6N87W 
10N110W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN SETTING UP AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS 
ROUGHLY ALONG 138W TO THE E OF A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH 
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH ALONG WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE TOGETHER 
AIDING IN PRODUCTION OF PROLIFIC MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ AS MENTIONED ABOVE. E OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AN 
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDS FROM NRN BAJA TO 23N126W 
IS DIGGING SE...COMING INTO PHASE WITH TROUGH FROM 23N126W TO 
12N127W.  

A SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IS 
CENTERED NEAR 32N135W AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EVIDENT IN 
SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS S OF THE SURFACE 
HIGH...GENERALLY W OF 115W...BUT INCLUDING THE AREA JUST ALONG 
THE NRN BAJA COAST AND THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN 
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS PARADE OF 
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUALLY DIG INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE 
U.S. AN UPPER LOW CUTS OFF BRIEFLY SW OF BAJA ON MON THEN OPENS 
UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON TUE. THIS WILL 
TRANSLATE TO LITTLE CHANGE IN PRESENT CONDITIONS THROUGH AT 
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LARGE NLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY OVER 
MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 110W...ALTHOUGH A NEW BATCH OF NWLY SWELL 
IS EXPECTED OFF THE BAJA COAST BY MIDWEEK. 

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY LATE SUN 
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DUE A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. IN ADDITION WINDS OVER THE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL 
BRIEFLY INCREASE SUN DUE TO FRESH TO STRONG ELY FLOW IN THE 
CARIBBEAN.

$$
CHRISTENSEN