000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182143
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE DEC 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE 
LINE...8N81W 6N97W 8N120W 7N140W. THERE IS AN AREA OF MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE POINT 8.5N124W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
WELL DEFINED MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A 
LINE 19N140W 22N130W 29N115W 30N100W. THE AREA WITHIN THE TROUGH 
REGION SOUTH OF 25N AND THE AREA NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS E OF 
120W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. 
A PLUME OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MULTI LEVEL 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS IS WITHIN 600 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE 
TROUGH LINE AND IS ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
AN AREA OF CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF 8.5N124W IS CONTRIBUTING 
TO THIS AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.

THE AREA SOUTH OF A LINE 20N90W 20N112W 5N120W 5N127W 10N130W 
10N140W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS 
EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SMALL AREAS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ 
ONE NEAR 96W AND ANOTHER NEAR 80W.

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE A BROAD 
TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
REGION THROUGH 18 HOURS THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS 
WITH THE GAP WIND EVENT ENDING IN 48 HOURS.

GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WILL GENERALLY BE LESS 
THAN 20 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
LL