000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161548
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN DEC 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 
6N95W 9N105W 8N115W 9N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 5N TO 8N E OF 82W AND ALSO 
FROM 8N TO 11N W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 14N W OF 100W...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE W COAST OF THE UNITED STATES 
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 
28N W OF 130W WITH THE AXIS LOCATED THROUGH 32N133W TO 28N138W. 
RIDGING ALOFT IS LOCATED N OF 25N E OF 125W INTO NW MEXICO. THIS 
FEATURE IS AMPLIFYING NORTHWARD INTO THE SW UNITED STATES. A 
LARGE AREA OF WESTERLIES ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM ABOUT 
14N TO 23N. SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS FROM THE GOES-11 
SATELLITE BETWEEN 350 AND 250 MILLIBARS INDICATES WIND SPEEDS IN 
THE 70 TO 80 KNOT RANGE FROM 20N TO 23N AND LOWER SPEEDS FURTHER 
S. 

REMAINDER OF AREA...
OVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 14N W OF 120W THE WINDS ALOFT ARE  
ANTICYCLONIC. FURTHER E THE FLOW AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS 
IS EASTERLY WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS. AT THE 
SURFACE A QUIKSCAT PASS AT ABOUT 1145 UTC INDICATES A GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC EVENT HAS BEGUN. THE RETRIEVALS SHOW N WINDS OF 25 
KNOTS AND GALE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. BY 
48 HOURS WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE.

$$
CAB